断头谷

机器人加速量产，稀土需求不止新能_我的网站

鲁豫有约

A |

Elliot James Reay sings on stage at a Chinese live show. Photo: Courtesy of UMG
Elliot James Reay could have copied every other Western act and sung a Taylor Swift cover. Instead, he took 1950s rock'n'roll to a live TV show where autotune is switched off and discovered a version of fame that Britain has forgotten.
Elliot James Reay was traveling in the US, trying to finish a song, when his manager called. There was an invitation to join Singer 2026, a prime-time live music show in China. Reay didn't hesitate. He had traveled the world before he was a full-time musician, but had run out of money before reaching China. "I went everywhere but China," he said while sitting for an interview with the Global Times, sitting in the office of his label in Beijing, from which the Palace Museum can be seen not far away.
Reay is, in the West, a very 2020s kind of artist. He began posting short covers on short video platform TikTok in 2019; during the UK Covid lockdown, he chose to focus on growing his fan base. He now has millions of followers across platforms, and his debut single notched 10 million views before it was even released. In the British industry, this is both a leg-up and a trap. "You can have all the followers," he says, "but they don't guarantee people will buy tickets."
In China, that equation flipped.
Elliot James Reay sings on stage at a Chinese live show. Photo: Courtesy of UMG

Elliot James Reay sings on stage Photo: Courtesy of UMG
Nervous again
The Chinese show, Singer 2026 is broadcast completely live, with no pitch correction. For Reay, who had played enough small gigs to feel comfortable in his own skin, it was a shock. "I haven't felt nerves in a long time," he says. "But I've never been in a competition before. To have my singing judged against other people made me really nervous."
He watched Week One's performances from the wings and saw why. "The standard was terrifying," he says.
But the format, he admits, is something the UK no longer has: a televised singing contest that treats vocal ability as a public event, not a pre-packaged product. "It made me feel like I just started my career again."
Reay's lane is retro. Not as pastiche, but as lineage. He wears the silhouette of Elvis Presley, sings in the grain of 1950s pop, and writes songs that sound like they were cut from a Sun Records demo. He could have sanded it down for Chinese audiences, but he didn't.
"Someone has to start the wave before you can see it," he says. Among the songs he performed were "Unchained Melody" and his original track "I Think They Call This Love," which he co-wrote with his girlfriend. He points out that the Beatles still sit next to Taylor Swift on the radio, and that pop started in the 50s. "It's the foundations of pop," he says.
Learning to feel the words
In the final, Reay performed a bilingual version of the Chinese song "Hou Hui Wu Qi" (The End of the World). It was his first time singing in another language. He spent five days learning the Chinese lyrics, listening to the original on loop.
"There are sounds in Chinese we just don't have in English," he says. "I couldn't hear the difference at first. I'd say it, and Helen (his translator) would say, 'No.' I thought I was saying the same thing." Eventually, he stopped trying to hear it and started trying to feel it. "It became more about how it felt to say it. How I place my tongue in my mouth," he says.
He didn't understand the meaning until day three. "Helen gave me a card with the Chinese characters and the English translation. It's very poetic," he says. The performance received a strong reaction, with it being called an attempt at "cultural fusion."
He had saved his own original, "I Think They Call This Love," co-written with his girlfriend, for the same final. He had held the song back deliberately. "I knew that any week was my last week," he says, "but I knew that if I made it to the grand final that I had to do it then." He had no idea it would become the last song of the entire show.
When he finished, he walked straight off stage, took his girlfriend's hand, and the two of them left together, a moment that trended on Chinese social media that night.
The song is about the exact point they realized they were in love; it was also the first track of his career he fully believed in and pushed into the world. Having her there to watch it live, after weeks of her only seeing performances on a phone in a hotel room, "tied the whole thing in a bow at the end."
A touring musician, not a TikToker
Reay is open about the tension between his origin story and his ambition. "I don't want to be a TikTok celebrity," he says. "I'm a musician. I want to tour."
The platform gave him an audience, but it also boxed him in. He remembers friends who wrote incredible songs during lockdown, while he chose to build a fan base. Now, he says, some of those friends have had to stop writing and make TikTok videos instead.
China, he says, gave him permission to be both an online creator and a live performer. Universal Music, his label, didn't push him to chase trends. "They never said, 'Do this, do that,'" he says. "They supported what I wanted to sing, and then they made it the best version they could."
Before Reay, a string of international artists had already found warm receptions and career-shifting opportunities in China. Kazakhstani singer Dimash Kudaibergen, Malaysian star Shila Amzah, US country artist Mickey Guyton, British vocalist Jessie J, and French singer-songwriter Joyce Jonathan all won large Chinese audiences through high-profile television appearances and live performances, each using the platform to open a new chapter in their careers.
He's already planning a return. He wants to bring a tour. He wants to buy the traditional instruments he saw on set and take them home to England. "I'm going to learn how to play them," he says, "and maybe put them into my music."
The advice he'd give other Western artists looking East is to stay loyal to yourself. "Be yourself," he says. "It's very easy to want to change yourself to fit into a market, but at the end of the day, if you stay true to yourself, you'll be happy."
"In the UK, I felt like I needed to do other things to make other people happy," he says.
"If I hadn't stopped doing that, I wouldn't be sitting here. I wouldn't have done the show. My whole journey would be different," he says.
。当下市场热议AI模型迭代、算力扩张与人形机器人落地，却很少有人留意支撑整条科技产业链运转的核心稀缺资源——稀土。无论是新能源汽车、储能设备，还是算力机房、工业人形机器人，高性能永磁材料都是不可或缺的核心零部件，而稀土正是制造永磁材料的唯一原料。伴随多条高景气赛道同步放量，叠加全球稀土资源、加工产能高度集中的产业底色，稀土的定价逻辑早已脱离传统周期品框架，中长期配置价值持续凸显。 AI与机器人产业的发展瓶颈，根源在于稀土供给而非技术迭代过往科技产业分析大多聚焦算法、芯片与终端产品创新，当技术走向规模化量产，上游关键矿产的供给能力便成为约束产业扩张的核心天花板，稀土的约束效应尤为突出。稀土并非普通工业原料，而是人工智能、人形机器人产业链的刚需关键原料。电机、传感器、伺服系统等核心硬件均依赖稀土永磁，高端制造行业规模化生产的前提之一，就在于产业对于稀土的需求能够得到持续满足。图：2026年稀土储量的地理分布数据来源：国际能源署（IEA）《Rare Earth Elements: Pathways to secure and diversified supply chains》，截至2026年。全球稀土储量呈现高度集中格局，我国储量占比接近半数，其余资源零散分布于多国，单一国家储量占比偏低，天然决定稀土是具备强战略属性的稀缺资源。相较于静态储量，冶炼分离、磁材深加工环节的产能集中度更高，让稀土同时承受资源端与加工端双重供给约束，进一步放大中长期供需矛盾。多赛道需求同步放量，稀土迎来结构性长期增长传统金属需求多跟随单一经济周期起伏，本轮稀土需求的核心特征是多条高景气赛道同步释放增量。

B | 新能源汽车渗透率持续提升、储能装机快速增长、AI 算力设施大规模建设、人形机器人落地工厂试点，四大领域的用稀土需求同步叠加，持续拉动行业长期需求。图：稀土元素需求、采矿需求与产业集中度数据来源：国际能源署（IEA），Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025。

C | 注：图中稀土相关数据基于IEA在不同情景下（STEPS、APS）对关键矿产需求的测算，其中稀土元素仅指磁材稀土（Magnet Rare Earths），不包含全部稀土应用口径。

D | 需求增长区间基于2024—2040年测算，反映能源转型及电动化场景下的结构性增长趋势；供给与需求对比用于刻画中长期潜在供需缺口变化。拆分需求结构来看，能源转型与电动化是稀土需求增长的核心支柱，AI 与人形机器人持续贡献全新增量，增长属于十年维度的结构性扩张，而非短期反弹。当科技终端同步放量，稀土不再只是周期波动品种，而是约束全产业链发展的核心变量，需求扩容有望进一步打开稀土板块的长期定价空间。海外稀土项目加速落地，新增矿源无法等同于稳定供给稀土行业存在一个容易被忽视的核心规律：矿藏储量分布，不等于全球有效供给格局。稀土供给释放的核心卡点集中在中游冶炼、分离深加工环节，全球加工产能高度集中，这也是稀土价格波动显著的核心原因。永磁材料、稀土深加工高度依赖少数核心生产区域，供给端产能的小幅扰动，都会直接传导至下游全产业链，放大价格波动弹性。图：中国以外部分稀土项目的预计产量数据来源：Wood Mackenzie，截至2026年。注：表中不包含缅甸和中国持有的项目。棕地项目按扩建规模筛选，绿地项目按项目总规模筛选。

E | 稀土数据为总量口径，磁材数据反映永磁体（NdFeB）中所含稀土量。表中项目为部分已规划的棕地和绿地项目。棕地项目及扩建项目的产量表示从当前到2035年的新增产出。

F | 放眼全球，澳、美、马等多国纷纷上马稀土新建、扩建矿山项目，但稀土产业不止局限于采矿环节，从矿石提纯到永磁加工，全程存在严苛的技术、环保与成本壁垒，海外短期内无法搭建完整成熟产业链，新增矿产难以转化为稳定的高端成品供给，很难对我国产业形成实质替代。各国主动布局稀土供应链，恰恰佐证稀土是不可或缺的战略核心资源。国内不仅掌握全球绝大多数冶炼、磁材产能，坐拥稀缺中重稀土矿藏，搭建起一体化全产业链，工艺与成本优势难以复制；叠加国内常态化开采管控锁定供给上限，新能源、AI 机器人赛道持续催生永磁刚需，供需格局向好态势长期存在支撑。